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NBA

NBA Finals – Predictions Up in Flames

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So once again, the Spurs and Heat have proven that very few people can accurately predict sports – myself especially.  As this series has gone on, back and forth throughout, I’ve heard countless reasons for certain players’ successes and failures and plenty of bold predictions on how the rest of the NBA Finals will play out – and in retrospect, none of us seemed to know what the hell we were talking about.

If I came up to you the day before the Finals started and told you that despite the fact none of the games will be close down the stretch, the series would be a back-and-forth affair, you’d probably tell me that my prediction doesn’t make much sense.  How about this: “LeBron James and Tim Duncan will have some real difficulty scoring at times, which will lead to blowout losses for both of them.  But of course the best, most outlandish prediction that would prove true about these finals has to be: Danny Green will shoot 70% from beyond the arc, and break Ray Allen’s record for most 3-pointers in the NBA Finals.

Prior to these past five games being played, these claims would sound like nonsense.  But looking at it from where we are now, the predictions that were made by my friends and I – as well as a majority of the so-called experts – prove to be the actual nonsense.  That’s sports for ya’, you think you have a pretty good grasp on the general way a matchup will play out and afterwards, you feel like you understand it less than when you started.

Seriously, I can’t get over how ridiculous this Danny Green story is getting.  As of right now, he is in position to win Finals MVP – an award that ALWAYS goes to the superstars like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James. A couple of games ago, I said that I figured the law of averages would play out and Green would start to look like the player we all thought he was – a young journeyman that’s been sent to the D-League not so long ago. Looking ahead, I’m at the point now where I’m half convinced that he will continue to shoot out of his mind for the last two games, as unlikely as history says that is. 

I still think that it is vital for Wade to continue to have the greater role that he’s had as of late, but it has to be priority number one for the Miami Heat to stop Green from getting these wide-open looks that he is still getting.  That may mean giving less help at times to cover a driving Tony Parker, but at this point, you can’t assume Green is going to cool down.

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NBA

NBA Finals Check-In

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Heat Spurs Finals 2 picWhich player has surprised you in a good way?

Nick Wershing: The two players I would say have surprised in a good way are Ray Allen and Danny Green. Both are only the fourth option at best for their teams, but there are shooting a high percentage in the limited looks they get.

Evan Sally: Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard of the Spurs have surprised me thus far with their play. While many of the Spurs players faltered after Game 1, including the veteran trio of Parker, Duncan and Ginobli, Leonard and Green have proven to be the only constants so far. Leonard has impressed with his rebounding and defense on LeBron James and Green has not allowed the big state of The Finals intimidate him, going 6 for 6 from the field shooting for 17 points, including hitting all 5 shot he took behind the 3 point arc.

Jim Bearor: The first name that comes to mind is Danny Green.  His uncanny shooting might have been the only reason the Spurs were competitive in Game 2 as long as they were.  So since I expected Dwyane Wade to dominate him throughout this series, I would have to say that he has surprised me the most.  He looks just as composed as any of San Antonio’s veteran players – which is impressive enough in itself – but he has also been flat-out outshining some of his teammates, most notably Manu Ginobli.
Which player has disappointed you so far?

NW: I would say Kawhi Leonard. Coming into the series, he was
supposed to be the x-factor for the Spurs, but he has not shown up either game.
And while LeBron has been slowed down, I do not attribute it to Leonard, but
instead to the Spurs as a whole.

ES: Can someone tell Manu Ginobli the series has started? The future Hall of Famer has disappointed in Games 1 and 2, shooting a combined 6 for 17 from the field for only 18 points. San Antonio was able to steal a game with Manu playing poorly, but they won’t be able to steal a series without Ginobli operating on all cylinders.

JB: There have been a few players that have struggled over the past two games, but I have to think that –shockingly – Manu Ginobli and Tim Duncan have been the most disappointing.  Duncan has uncharacteristically disappeared when his team has needed him most, and Ginobli has been pretty much irrelevant since the Finals started.  I suppose an argument could be made for Chris Bosh, who made some poor shooting decisions throughout Game 1, but he definitely turned it around in Game 2.
 Are you surprised by the way this series has gone so far?

NW: I’m not surprised by the outcomes of the two games, I am
only surprised by how some specific players are playing. No star is blowing
anyone away. LeBron is under 20 pts both games. Duncan and Parker combined for
only 21 in game 2. Wade only had 10 in game 2. I’m going to be optimistic and
attribute it to great defense instead of poor offense though.

ES: Not too surprised. If you would have asked any objective NBA fan before the series started what the series would stand at after 2 games, I’m sure 1-1 would be a very common answer. What was most surprising was how San Antonio was able to win Game 1, only committing 4 turnovers and slowing down the Heat’s hyper efficient offense.

JB: Not really.  I expected the Heat to take the first two
games, but everyone expected this series to be close.  Like I said in some of my earlier posts: if
the Heat are going to beat the Spurs in any given game, they are going to have
to knock them out – which they did in Game 2.  When they let the Spurs hang around until the end like Game 1, Miami doesn’t seem to fly around as aggressively as they would if they had the lead. All in all, I’m not shocked by much so far in this series, outside of Tony Parker’s circus shot to close out Game 1.
What to expect as the series moves to San Antonio

NW: Just a close series. The Spurs have done a great job maintaining LeBron, something no team has been able to do this playoffs. Expect the Heat to try and get LeBron going a little earlier. I’m expecting the Heat to take two of three in San Antonio. Miami is hitting 3’s, which is going to spread the stifling Spurs defense if they keep it up, and that will allow James, Wade, and even Chalmers to get more close range shots.

ES: In Game 1, the Spurs were able to limit the Heat in the 4th quarter and win a low scoring game. In Game 2, the Heat’s defense took absolute control in the 2nd half, jumpstarting their offense into a scoring explosion that saw them score 33 points to the Spurs 5 during a 7 minute period. Expect Games 3-5 to be played closer to what we saw in Game 1. The Spurs aren’t as bad as they looked in Game 2, and they are due for a game when they hit their shots and bury the Heat in a barrage of 3s. But expect the Heat’s D to be the deciding factor in this series, and for the Heat to return from Texas with a 3-2 lead.

JB: I expect the law of averages to come into effect.  I don’t think Danny Green can maintain this level of success shooting the ball, just like I don’t think Manu Ginobli and Tim Duncan will continue to struggle this bad.  Besides this, I think it will be a hell of a lot harder for LeBron and the Heat to control the momentum for as long as they did when they were on their home court.  This is going to be more of a grind for Miami, and smart money says that they won’t be able to go on a 33-5 run in San Antonio, which obviously benefits the Spurs.  I think that unless Wade or James play outside their skulls, the Spurs will take 2 out of the next 3.  The thing is, I do expect an all-time classic performance from one of those guys.  Heat steal 2 out of the next 3 in Texas.

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The Gang Previews the NBA Finals

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Heat Spurs Finals pic

This seemed to work well when we did it for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, so we decided to do it again. The gang breaks down the upcoming NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat… Enjoy.

 

If you had to choose one characteristic of each team that is the reason why they are playing for the NBA championship, what would it be?

Evan Sally: Throughout the Heat’s 66 win regular season, which included a historic 27 game winning streak, Miami’s startling efficiency on offense carried them. However in the playoffs, when the quality of opponent increases and offense tends to stagnate, it’s their stifling defense that’s carried them to this point. Miami’s scrambling D forces turnovers and easy baskets allowing them to go on scoring runs.
San Antonio returns to the Finals following a 15th straight 50 win season by using the same formula as every other year: consistency and a commitment to their system. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli and Tim Duncan always give a consistent effort on the defensive end and are committed to good ball movement on offense. Their mentality instills a similar style of play from the role players on the team, allowing them to excel as well.

Nick Wershing:Heat bought into the team factor. They no longer have the problem as to whose team it is. This is LeBron’s team and everyone, including Wade, has bought into it. That allowed them to play to their full potential. Spurs are here because of Pop. Yes, the team has three future Hall of Famers. But they are all in the tail end of their careers. Popovich’s system has allowed all of the role players to perform at a high level, which in turn allows the big three to continue playing well.

Jim Bearor: The Heat are in the NBA Finals not only because the extraordinary level of talent they can put on the court at any time, but also because they react when they are challenged. Throughout the regular season, Miami would dominate teams but it would often take two or even three quarters for them to start rolling on all cylinders. This was one of the few knocks on them throughout the season and they’re playing for another NBA Championship because they’ve been able to turn it on when it matters most. This is most noticeable on defense, and Game 7 against the Pacers – maybe because it is freshest in my mind – is probably the best example. Even though it seems that this team has an on/off switch, they’ve been able to flip it at the right times.
When I think of the San Antonio Spurs, a few words come to mind: Veteran, Organized, and Fundamental. For the most part, the foundation of this team has been together for about a decade – and in some instances longer. This, combined with the emergence of young talent like Tiago Splitter and Danny Green makes San Antonio so well rounded, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that they are the team to come out of the West. They have it all: size, depth, experience, youth, coaching. The Spurs are a melting pot of everything an NBA team should have.

 

Matchup advantages either way?
ES: LeBron James on Kawhi Leonard. I know LeBron has a physical advantage against essentially every player in the league that would defend him. But I want to look at this matchup from the opposite perspective. Leonard provides valuable athleticism and floor spacing for the Spurs offensively. If LeBron can shut down Leonard’s offensive production, the Spurs will have a tough time scoring when the other, more inconsistent role players struggle to hit shots.
Also, while Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole always produce nicely for Miami, their production will pale in comparison to Tony Parker. Parker has played his best in the past two series against two tough matchups, Golden State and Memphis. Look for Cole to try to slow down Parker, but also look for Parker to use his experience to create openings for himself and teammates.

NW: Its hard for me to give either team an advantage. Experience wise, the Heat are going to their third straight Finals, but the Spurs have been doing this for a decade. I would give an edge in depth and size to the Spurs, but the edge in athleticism and defense to the Heat.
JB: LeBron James has a clear-cut advantage over anyone who the Spurs decide to put on him – most likely Kawhi Leonard – but this series may come down to the Green/Ginobli on Wade matchup. Yes, it is a Jeckyl and Hyde-type deal with Wade, but – like Batman, actually – he tends to produce more often than not when he is needed most. Needless to say, the Heat will need him to produce in the Finals.
As for the Spurs, their biggest advantage seems to be Tony Parker versus Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole. But again, I believe the most important advantage will be different than the most obvious one. I wonder who Spoelstra will decide to put up against future-Hall-of-Famer Tim Duncan. Whether it is Haslem or Bosh, there are going to be serious issues covering Duncan down low.

 
Keys to a Heat W
ES: The keys to Heat win in this series are containing the Spurs size, rebounding, and the reemergence of Dwyane Wade. Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter can’t be allowed to repeat what Roy Hibbert did to the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. This goes in concert with my second key, controlling the boards. Despite their size San Antonio is a poor rebounding team. However, they have improved as of late, so Chris Bosh and the three headed center combo of Chris Andersen, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony must improve on the interior. And obviously the Heat aren’t going to be able to win a title without a major contribution from Wade on both ends of the floor. The Spurs are a better team than Indiana; they will take advantage where the Pacers were not able to if Wade falters once again.
 
NW: Rebounding and 3-point shooting. LeBron and Dwyane Wade are great slashers, which collapses the defense. Once the defense starts trying to double on these drives, players like Battier, Allen, and Miller need to step up and hit shots, something they did not do in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Spurs are also a very fundamentally sound team, so the Heat need to grab all of the defensive rebounds and not allow for second chance points. Bosh, Haslem, and Anderson need to cover their assignments here.

JB: I believe the most important factor for Miami is going to be whether or not they can keep up the intensity on defense throughout the series. When they play with energy, they make it difficult for the opposition to get more than one good look per possession. Obviously it is going to be a different story covering Tony Parker as he brings the ball across half-court, but they can’t let up. The second biggest element of the game that the Heat need to focus on is stealing some rebounds from Splitter and Duncan. This isn’t a battle that they are going to win, but they can’t let San Antonio’s big men have their way down low. For the Heat, it is going to come down to how long it takes them to find and maintain that unmatchable level of intensity.

 
Keys to a Spurs W
ES: The keys for the Spurs are defending the 3 and ball movement. The Heat are at their most dangerous when Wade, James and Bosh are attracting double teams and Heat’s shooters can get wide open threes. The Spurs must find a way to double and still be able to get out and get a hand in the face of Allen, Battier, Miller and the Heat’s litany of shooters. Ball movement also will be able absolutely crucial to a San Antonio victory. The reason why Dallas succeeded where Oklahoma City failed when facing Miami in the Finals the past two years is because they realized the best way to attack the Miami D is with quick passes and back cuts to find open guys as opposed to attacking with dribble penetration. San Antonio has a similar roster with more experience than Dallas; we’ll see if they can also use that blueprint.

NW: Role Players. Typical of any Pop team, the Spurs are very deep. The Big 3 matchups will be exciting. But I think the Spurs win if players like Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, and Danny Green step up.

JB: The Spurs best shot in beating Miami lies in how well they can lock down Dwyane Wade. If you limit LeBron’s options, he’ll be forced to try and beat you himself – which although possible, is less likely. The Pacers did the best job of this throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, most notably in Game 6. There is no way you are going to stop James from getting his, but if you put an embargo on him, you force him to take the shots instead of passing off to the talent around him.

 
Player to watch
ES: Ray Allen and Norris Cole. Even though Allen has struggled throughout the playoffs, his track record of shooting excellence gives him the best chance to be the non-Big 3 player to have the biggest effect on this series. Norris Cole also will have a major effect by utilizing his quickness to try and slow down Tony Parker.
Danny Green. The San Antonio role player has impressed with consistent shooting and excellent D in the postseason. It’s important that his run of good play continues because he will still get plenty of good shooting opportunities and take a crack at defending Wade.

NW: Manu Ginobili. We all know Tony Parker was amazing this year. Duncan will be a force down low. Manu is the X-factor to me in this series. If he can take advantage of the hobble Wade, the Spurs will have a much easier series. If he starts trying to force shots and not play Spurs basketball, the Heat defense will swallow him up.

JB: It has to be Dwyane Wade. In a strange turn of events, the pressure isn’t on LeBron anymore – he has nothing left to prove on the court. Whether due to his injury or some other reason, there is doubt surrounding Wade right now. If the old D-Wade we all know and love shows up, this could be a rather quick series. It’s a matter of if and when he makes an appearance that will decide this series.

 

Pick a Winner

ES: While the Spurs have an excellent team and can exploit the Heat in several areas, Miami has the ultimate advantage in that the best player in the world plays for their team, LeBron James. He’s been playing at an extremely high level since last year’s Finals and I see no reason for that to end. The Spurs will push Miami, winning games through extreme efficiency from the 3 point line. But’s it’s really hard to beat LeBron 4 times in 7 games when he’s playing this well. Heat in 6 games.

NW: I’m going to take the Heat, just because they have home court advantage and are the defending champs. This is going to be a great series either way. We also have no results from the year to base our decision on, since key players sat out of both meetings. It will be a great series, but I am going to take the MVP and the Heat in six.

JB: I did say that I believed the Pacers may have had a better shot to beat this Spurs team, but the return of Wade and the supporting cast in Game 7 has swayed me. I like the Heat’s bench better than San Antonio’s, and I believe Miami has the chance to perform better in some of these matchups than we expect them to (Chalmers/Cole on Parker). LeBron will be LeBron and likely win the MVP, but Dwyane Wade will reemerge and contribute early and often. Heat in 5.

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