Game 1 Reflection:
Here’s my synopsis of Thursday night’s games in very broad strokes: The Spurs looked like a team that hadn’t played in 9 days (because they hadn’t), and Miami looked like they had just been in a knock-down drag-out fight (because they had). In the beginning quarters, San Antonio let the Heat get away with a few transition baskets and took some time getting up to speed. Because of this, Miami definitely controlled the tempo, leading by 7 or 8 points throughout pretty much the entire game until there was about 5 minutes left in the final quarter. At the end of the game, Miami seemed to rush possessions, throwing the ball away uncharacteristically. The Spurs – who had completely shaken off the rust by this point – took the lead in the closing minutes, and Tony Parker iced it with his unbelievable shot.

So despite playing some of their best basketball so far in these playoffs, the Heat couldn’t deliver that knockout punch down the stretch. And of course being the veteran team they are, San Antonio hung around and took advantage of those late Miami turnovers to steal homecourt advantage.

I don’t think this is a LeBron problem, although many people think that he was too passive in Game 1. He finished with a stat line of 18-18-10, which I have absolutely no issue with. He made the smart decision almost every time the ball was in his hands as he usually does. Although he wasn’t shooting as often as he usually does, he made up for it by passing the ball off and creating opportunities for teammates a few more times than usual.

James did his part, Wade and Bosh both contributed (even though Bosh thought he was Ray Allen at times), and the bench held up – so why did they fall apart down the stretch?

It has to be fatigue. One could assume that the Spurs got off to a late start because they had so much time off. The Heat had the complete opposite problem, feeling drained after a physically and emotionally demanding series with the Pacers.

Game 2 Preview:
I expect tonight’s matchup to look very similar to the type of game we saw in Game 1, at least during the middle quarters. There won’t be a slow start for San Antonio, just like Miami shouldn’t struggle with fatigue late in the fourth quarter. Miami will try to play the more physical game, pushing the pace as often as they can and using their athleticism as their main advantage. If they can do this without the frequent turnovers we saw in Game 1’s fourth quarter, they can put themselves in position to blow the game open and deliver the knockout punch that will prevent any more late game antics by Parker or anyone else.

If Miami lets San Antonio hang around again though, they lose the advantage. And of course its possible that the Spurs control the game by grabbing a few of the rebounds that they missed on Thursday, in which case Miami will find themselves on the other side of a blowout.

Any of these scenarios could play out tonight, but I expect James to take more shots than he did in Game 1. The Spurs seem quite alright with letting him – or Bosh – taking perimeter jumpshots. If he falls into this same trap that was set by the Mavericks a couple years ago, San Antonio should win. However if James and Bosh don’t settle for those outside shots, Heat should come out on top.

Sticking to my guns because it’s still possible, and I’m not wrong yet. Heat in 5.