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NFL

NFC Championship Game Preview: 49ers @ Seahawks

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Seahawks 49ersby Jim Bearor

           For the most part, I’ll spare the statistics, because as I said in my earlier post, I’m not going to be able to give numbers and matchups that aren’t already out there.

            We all know Seattle has home field advantage, but many people don’t truly appreciate how much playing in CenturyLink Stadium benefits the Seahawks.  Since the beginning of last year – AKA the beginning of the Russell Wilson era – the Seahawks have gone 16-1 at home (yeah I know what I said about stats, but come on, that’s unbelievable). 

Seattle fans are notoriously loud already, and this game could be the loudest yet. This is not only because their team is playing for a Super Bowl berth, but also due to the unusual policies concerning ticket sales enacted by CenturyLink earlier this week. Tickets were available Monday morning for the NFC Championship game, but only to those who live in Washington, Montana, Oregon, Idaho, Alaska, Hawaii, or the Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia (the Broncos have done something very similar to this as well). Obviously their intent is to keep San Fran fans out of the stadium.

Controversial? Maybe, but my NFC Championship Preview isn’t the place for an ethics discussion (because I said so).

Bottom line: the place is going to be rocking, and I think it will affect the Niners – Colin Kaepernick in particular. Although he has had some rushing success in his two games at Seattle (118 yards total), Kaep has struggled throwing the ball. He has completed 32 of his 64 passes for 371 yards – which comes out to be around 5.8 yards per attempt – and has only one passing touchdown versus four interceptions.  I’m a Kaepernick fan, but those struggles can’t be ignored.

While this all this suggests Kaepernick might get rattled and cost his team the game, I’m not completely convinced that this is how it will play out.  Yes, the noise will be a factor – a HUGE factor – but in his young career, Colin has proven that he is the kind of player who can handle the pressure that comes with big games like this. So I expect to see Colin take the field on Sunday night as confident as he seems to be in those Beats commercials.

It’s pretty for Kaep easy to keep the right state of mind though when you’re handing the ball off more than you’re forced to drop back and pass against the biggest, baddest, most ball-hawkingest secondary on the planet.  The Seahawks know this, and I believe Bobby Wagner and a fully healed KJ Wright will be bringing the heat early and often, daring Kaepernick to test his luck through the air. It will take a great deal of stress off of Seattle’s offense if they can keep San Fran’s ground game in check — including Kaepernick tucking and running on designed passes.

Speaking of tall orders, Russell Wilson is going to have his hands full if the front seven of the 49ers takes away the running game. The offensive line for Seattle is impressive, but not as good as the group they’re facing.  I think the 49ers are going to give Marshawn Lynch a very tough time, in hopes of putting Wilson on the spot. 

Essentially, I believe that San Francisco and Seattle will come in with very similar gameplans.  Both will try to force the other’s young quarterback to try and make plays against a staunch defense.  The only differences I see are that the Seahawks have a better secondary, and the 49ers have a better set of lineman and ‘backers. 

Here is what it comes down to: the 49ers may have an easier time forcing the ball into Russell Wilson’s hands, but if the Seahawks somehow manage to contain Gore and Kaepernick on the ground, Kaepernick will be given the near-impossible task of throwing on the Legion of Boom in their own dojo.

So to wrap things up, CenturyLink Stadium is going to be very loud, each team is going to target the opposing quarterback, CenturyLink Stadium is going to be very loud, Kaepernick hasn’t had success in Seattle thus far in his career, and CenturyLink Stadium is going to be very loud.

Wilson and Kaepernick both put together impressive games, but Seattle’s D forces one big turnover that makes the difference. 

Seattle wins, 20-13.

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NFL

Wilson and Kaepernick – Why the Better QB is More at Risk

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Wilson and Kaep

By Jim Bearor

Every football fan is pretty familiar with Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick, and how similar they seem to be.

Almost everyone has seen the Madden 25 commercials, where the two young stars are made out to be lifelong pals who are always competing in a buddy-buddy way. To clear things up, that was just a commercial and there is no real-life relationship between the two outside of their budding rivalry.

There is no doubting their parallels on the field, though. Both are young, very talented quarterbacks who were lucky enough to fall into the situations they have.  There might not be any better surrounding casts in the NFL than the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks – both teams are stacked across the board, so the developing quarterback doesn’t have to be the hero all the time.

Wilson is about 5 inches shorter than Kaepernick, and doesn’t have the same incredible arm strength, but he has this innate understanding of the game of football that helps him compensate for that physical advantage – for example, he is a bit less trigger happy to tuck the ball and run, he instead uses his legs to create plays in the passing game. Kaepernick is a hair faster than Wilson, but not enough to set him apart (Wilson’s 40-yard-dash at the Combine: 4.55; Kaepernick’s: 4.53).

            They lead different personal lives as well, although they are made out to be different versions of the same person by much of the media.

 Russell is married, leads a low-profile lifestyle, and is very humble and grounded (just watch how he acts when he isn’t taking the snap). 

Colin seems to have a very different persona, he is single and often out with friends and just doing what one might expect from a young celebrity.  He is more energetic and outgoing with his emotions (he has his own touchdown celebration, if that says anything), but – to this point – has stayed out of trouble.

            What I take from all of this is that Russell Wilson – appearing to be the more focused and mature of the two – has the mental makeup of a successful NFL quarterback more so than Colin Kaepernick does.  If you haven’t noticed by now, if I had my choice between the two, I would go with Wilson.  However, if I had to pick the team that is more conducive to the success of a young quarterback, I’d definitely go with the 49ers.

            Although the Seahawks and 49ers are not so different in their makeup – both great defensively and in the running game – I would argue that Kaepernick is in a better situation, because it’s tougher for opposing teams to put pressure on him. 

San Francisco’s offensive line is what really sets them apart from most other teams in the league.  I’m not talking in terms of pass protection necessarily, but the holes that are opened up for Frank Gore do wonders in slowing down the pass rush of the opponent.  San Fran runs more than any team in the NFL, and because of this, the defense makes stopping the ground game its primary focus. Now, when Kaepernick works the play action – something he does very well – the defense is more off-balance than usual. Another advantage for Colin is a talented group of pass-catchers, especially now that Crabtree is healthy. With Crabtree, Boldin, and Davis all on the field, anyone could be the primarty target on any given play.

While the “Legion of Boom” will likely handle this trio effectively, they will be put at a disadvantage by the mismatches created by the running game.

Russell Wilson is handing the ball off to the more talented running back, but he doesn’t have the same caliber line as that of Kaepernick.  Also, his best receivers are currently Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin, instead of Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin – assuming Harvin is still concussed.  It also should be mentioned that this depleted Seahawks offense has to deal with the best front 7 in football, so the pressure will always be on.

Wilson has been vulnerable as of late, and his stats have suffered. In Seattle’s last 5 games, Wilsons Total QBR has fallen from 67.5 (above average) to 30.4 (significantly below average) and on average, he is holding on to the football for nearly a half-second more than usual.  Even though Wilson is a quarterback who tends to extend plays longer than most, this statistic shows that he is having difficulty finding open receivers.  You can only draw a play out for so long before the defense catches up to you.

So what I think I’m trying to get at here is that if the two were in a vacuum, I would pick Russell Wilson. But that isn’t the case, and Kaepernick is more set up for success with all things accounted for.  It is going to be much more difficult for Wilson to have a standout performance than his counterpart, but who knows, this is the NFL we’re talking about and the avid fan knows to expect the unexpected.

 

Some links I reference about the two quarterbacks:

http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/3661/some-revealing-stats-on-russell-wilson

http://mashable.com/2014/01/13/kaepernick-wilson-instagram-comparison/

http://blog.seattlepi.com/football/2013/09/12/colin-kaepernick-i-have-no-relationship-with-russell-wilson/

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NFL

Panthers – 49ers Preview

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panthers_49ers_APBy Jim Bearor

These teams look very similar on paper and on the field, because for the most part, they are.  Both have elite defenses, a young versatile quarterback, and a ground-and-pound offensive mentality.  Last time they met up, Carolina bested San Francisco, 10-9 in a game where offense was hard to come by.  To me, this is less of a knock against Newton and Kaepernick, and more of a testament to the defensive squads of each team – linebackers especially.

On the Panthers side of things, it’s Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly leading the charge.  The two have combined for 179 tackles on the season and are not only making a difference up front, but also in the flats and other passing situations.  They definitely gave Kaepernick some trouble the last time these guys met, sacking him six times and holding him to 91 passing yards.

The 49ers have an equally impressive defensive unit that is getting hot at the right time, due mostly in part to their linebackers – who in my opinion are the league’s best.  The star-studded group consists of Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith.  Bowman and Willis are the heart of the defense, stuffing the few running holes that opposing offenses manage to open up at the line of scrimmage and covering a great deal of  ground over the middle in the passing game as well.  Brooks and Smith are great at rushing off the edge, combining for 17 sacks during the regular season.

While the linebackers draw most of the attention for both of these teams, their offensive and defensive lines are also big difference makers. In a league where passing and defending the pass are usually the focus, the 49ers and Panthers win their games the old fashioned way – by controlling the line of scrimmage, creating pressure on the quarterback, and running the ball effectively.

So what’s the difference between these teams?

Not much, in my eyes.

            Carolina is playing in front of their home crowd, and there are injuries to consider, and that’s about it.  I don’t trust Colin Kaepernick more than Cam Newton or vice-versa.  Kaepernick has a touch more playoff experience than first-timer Newton, but neither has a playoff reputation to this point, and they both know how to play in big games (look at Newton’s college career and his most recent encounter with the Saints).

            What I think this game will come down to is the performance of the quarterbacks.  The difference will be which quarterback breaks out or falls on his face.  If I had to a gun to my head and had to choose between Colin and Cam, I think I’d take Cam. Steve Smith’s return and Carlos Rogers’ absence also factors in to that choice.

Panthers win 24-14

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