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Finals Game 1 Review / Game 2 Preview

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Game 1 Reflection:
Here’s my synopsis of Thursday night’s games in very broad strokes: The Spurs looked like a team that hadn’t played in 9 days (because they hadn’t), and Miami looked like they had just been in a knock-down drag-out fight (because they had). In the beginning quarters, San Antonio let the Heat get away with a few transition baskets and took some time getting up to speed. Because of this, Miami definitely controlled the tempo, leading by 7 or 8 points throughout pretty much the entire game until there was about 5 minutes left in the final quarter. At the end of the game, Miami seemed to rush possessions, throwing the ball away uncharacteristically. The Spurs – who had completely shaken off the rust by this point – took the lead in the closing minutes, and Tony Parker iced it with his unbelievable shot.

So despite playing some of their best basketball so far in these playoffs, the Heat couldn’t deliver that knockout punch down the stretch. And of course being the veteran team they are, San Antonio hung around and took advantage of those late Miami turnovers to steal homecourt advantage.

I don’t think this is a LeBron problem, although many people think that he was too passive in Game 1. He finished with a stat line of 18-18-10, which I have absolutely no issue with. He made the smart decision almost every time the ball was in his hands as he usually does. Although he wasn’t shooting as often as he usually does, he made up for it by passing the ball off and creating opportunities for teammates a few more times than usual.

James did his part, Wade and Bosh both contributed (even though Bosh thought he was Ray Allen at times), and the bench held up – so why did they fall apart down the stretch?

It has to be fatigue. One could assume that the Spurs got off to a late start because they had so much time off. The Heat had the complete opposite problem, feeling drained after a physically and emotionally demanding series with the Pacers.

Game 2 Preview:
I expect tonight’s matchup to look very similar to the type of game we saw in Game 1, at least during the middle quarters. There won’t be a slow start for San Antonio, just like Miami shouldn’t struggle with fatigue late in the fourth quarter. Miami will try to play the more physical game, pushing the pace as often as they can and using their athleticism as their main advantage. If they can do this without the frequent turnovers we saw in Game 1’s fourth quarter, they can put themselves in position to blow the game open and deliver the knockout punch that will prevent any more late game antics by Parker or anyone else.

If Miami lets San Antonio hang around again though, they lose the advantage. And of course its possible that the Spurs control the game by grabbing a few of the rebounds that they missed on Thursday, in which case Miami will find themselves on the other side of a blowout.

Any of these scenarios could play out tonight, but I expect James to take more shots than he did in Game 1. The Spurs seem quite alright with letting him – or Bosh – taking perimeter jumpshots. If he falls into this same trap that was set by the Mavericks a couple years ago, San Antonio should win. However if James and Bosh don’t settle for those outside shots, Heat should come out on top.

Sticking to my guns because it’s still possible, and I’m not wrong yet. Heat in 5.

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Heat – Pacers: Game 7 Preview

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Paul George on LeBron James, one of the biggest matchups in tonight's Game 7

Paul George on LeBron James, one of the biggest matchups in tonight’s Game 7

Everyone is excited for tonight’s Heat/Pacers Game 7, so I got in touch with a few of my sports-savvy friends who I knew would want to chime in on how they think tonight will go. Here is what we came up with…
Keys to a Heat Victory

Bill Annechino: For the Heat, it is going to come down to rebounding and 3 pt shooting. Allen and Battier have been murdering them with their terrible shooting.
Nick Wershing: Contain Roy Hibbert. In all 3 of the Pacers wins, Hibbert has a double-double. In the 3 losses, he only has one double-double. Hibbert is a dominating force against any big man the Heat have to offer. The return of Chris Anderson will help, but the Heat need to keep constant pressure on the Indiana big man.

Evan Sally: Rebounding. More specifically, keeping Indiana off of the offensive boards. Whoever has won the points in the paint battle has won each game in the series. Cleaning up Indiana’s misses will be the key to winning that battle.

Jim Bearor: A lot of people are looking at Bosh and Wade, and how Miami can get those two involved in ways that they can contribute and “be aggressive”. I disagree. If DWade is not healthy enough to make an impact, why bother feeding him? It is also apparent that the Chris Bosh we’ve seen in this series isn’t the player that he was in the regular season. Since he’s not the physical guy who can match up against Hibbert and West down low, his role has been diminished, and trying to make him a perimeter player isn’t the kind of tweaking that should be going on at this point in the season. Rather than trying to change their style of play, the Heat need to execute the simple things that they’ve had difficulty with in this series – like those easy layups. The return of the Birdman will most likely help on the rebounding front as well.

Keys to a Pacers Victory
BA: Rebounding and defense. Their defense has to be spot on with its rotations and timing when it comes to doubling LeBron. West and Hibbert also need to stay out of foul trouble and on the court or it could get ugly.
NW: Limit Wade and Bosh. Let’s be honest; as he has shown all series, LeBron will be LeBron. The Pacers may slow him down, but he will show up in the end with his normal 25-8-6 night. The Pacers need to make sure Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh do not put up a big night as well. If at least two of the big three are hot, it will be an extremely tough victory for the Pacers.

ES: Pace. When the game gets frantic is when Miami is at their best. Pacers must slow the game down by being deliberate with each possession, but without allowing their offense to stagnate either.
JB: The Pacers just have to keep doing what they’re doing. Hibbert and the rest of the Indiana frontcourt look like the Monstars at times when compared to the “big men” of Miami. They have to continue to push the ball to these guys – mostly Paul George – and try not to turn it over like they have been in the games they’ve lost so far in this series.

Outside of LBJ, who is the player to watch?

BA: Dwyane Wade. He is by far the biggest question mark of the series. His probable injury has turned the heat from great to good.

NW: Paul George. The Fresno State product has been making a name for himself this year. Besides being named to the All-Star game and winning Most Improved Player, Paul George also received votes for Defensive Player of the Year. People are saying he could be a perennial All-Star, and what better stage to start than versus the best player in the league.

ES: Mike Miller. Miller has barely played in this series and I believe that’s what could make him the difference. He has fresher legs and could provide hustle plays and rebounding that the Heat are desperately lacking. Miller was already a Heat Hero once before, making 7 3s in the deciding game of last year’s Finals. I think he can do it again.

JB: BIRDMAN BIRDMAN!!! He has been shooting very well throughout this series, and his presence is needed down low if the Heat hope to corral any rebounds at all – especially now that Chris Bosh is essentially playing as a 3.

Which of these teams has the better chance to beat San Antonio?

BA: Pacers have a better chance of beating the Spurs because they’ve got the size, defense and are flat out healthier which is huge at this stage of the game.

NW: The Heat have been there and done that. They were the best team during the regular season and they are the defending champs. Adding Ray Allen and Chris Anderson, along with the growth of Norris Cole has added depth to this already championship roster.

ES: San Antonio can neutralize the one thing that makes Indiana special: their size. Also, Miami would be able to score with San Antonio, something I’m not sure Indiana would be able to do.

JB: As it stands right now, coming off of a loss, the Heat don’t look anything like the team that won twenty-something in a row and the Pacers look bigger and better as a whole by comparison. Because of the health issues and the inconsistencies that are starting to pop up around Mr. James, I have to lean towards the Pacers on this one.

Pick a winner for tonight

BA: I gotta be honest, I’m picking the Pacers tonight. They’re playing the better basketball and they’re healthier.

NW: Miami Heat.

ES: Miami by 10. A close game early with Miami pulling away in the 2nd half.

JB: I’m going with the Heat because despite whatever is going on around him, LeBron gives his team a chance to win. Yes it seems like everything is crumbling around him, but I think there are things that can go right that are being wrongfully written off. Wade hasn’t been himself, but who knows, maybe he’ll show up tonight. The same goes with Shane Battier, and maybe Ray Allen even hits a few of the shots that he’s been missing recently. I think that even if Miami can’t put it all together, they should be able to put enough of it together to grind this one out.

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NBA

Stage is Set for Return of the King

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by Jim Bearor

Right about now, I should be pulling the fork out of the Pacers and preparing to eat crow with it.  However, I am still pretty confident that Miami will pull this series out.  I know, I’m an idiot.  Everyone is dropping the not-so-hot Heat and are already talking about how much of a disappointment this season was.  Yes they are down 2-1 and the big three has become the big one and a half, but I think there is still hope.

I would agree that Bosh was undervalued by the general public, and now that he’s gone, people are  finally starting to realize how integral he is to their success.  It isn’t the end of the world though.  Call me crazy, but I think everyone is pressing the panic button a bit too early.  As I’m writing this, I’m sitting at my kitchen table, watching analysts on Sporscenter talking about the possibility of Pat Riley blowing up this disappointment of a team.

Whoa guys, slow down.

Isn’t this the same team – sans Bosh – that played in the NBA Finals last year, and was talked up by experts all season?  Everyone seems to have jumped off the bandwagon at once, including some Miami fans. Yes, the Game 3 loss to Indiana was ugly and the team is not nearly as healthy as they would like to be, but I can’t believe how fast people are to ditch this team on the side of the road.  The Pacers have outmuscled the Heat so far in this series (as many expected) but there is still time to adjust.

If anything, Game 3 served as a learning experience for Spoelstra’s team.  This is the most adversity this group has seen since they formed, and a perfect time to make necessary changes.  Dwyane Wade isn’t healthy and because of this he has deferred his role as the primary shooter to LeBron, at least to a degree.  In my eyes, It’s time to take the next step and put this series in King James’ lap.  Here is the opportunity that we have all been waiting for since he took his talents to South Beach.  Miami is his for the taking, all he has to do is take it.

Not many others seem to think so, though.

Right now on First Take, Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith are talking about whether or not LeBron deserves a pass for an early exit, considering the tough hand that he was dealt with his teams injuries.  Hold on, if we were talking about Michael Jordan or a younger Kobe Bryant, we’d be expecting them to step up and take control of their teams.  But with James, we anticipate the crumble.  I’m not saying that everyone should bet the farm on LeBron stepping up and becoming the hero that he can and should be. I’m just pointing out that even though his performance in the past is reason enough to warrant doubt, it doesn’t mean that we should count him out already.

We all know the infamous stories about LeBron’s disappearing acts in playoffs past, but don’t forget that he is a 3-time MVP and possesses all the tools to lead this team.

He subbed in at the number 4 spot for God’s sake.

If there ever was a time for the King to take the throne in Miami, it’s now.  Bosh is gone, and Wade isn’t all there — physically or mentally.  This sets the stage for one of two things: the physical Pacers continue to impose their will and James gets a pass, or he steps up at a time when nobody thinks he will and yet again proves that he doesn’t need a surrounding cast to dominate.

Call me foolish or stubborn or whatever you will, but I’m not getting off this bandwagon yet.  It may very well crash and burn, and I’ll come writing to you with my tail between my legs but I don’t think it will.  Lebron is going to pick up the slack and carry his team into the next round.  It will be interesting to see how the public’s opinion changes on the Heat if it plays out like I think it will, mostly because it’s always amusing to watch the reactions of those who quit on a team when they’re down.

Follow Jim on Twitter: @JimBearor

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